Nkhani Zaposachedwa: Lipenga Likhazikitsa Misonkho Pa Semiconductors Ndi Chips Padziko Lonse Lamlungu Lamawa
Siyani uthenga
Trump kuti akhazikitse msonkho pa semiconductor yapadziko lonse lapansi ndi chip kunja kwa sabata yamawa
Pa Ogasiti 5, nthawi yakomweko, poyankhulana ndi CNBC, a Trump adalengeza cholinga chake chopereka msonkho kwa ma semiconductors ndi tchipisi "chapafupi sabata yamawa," koma sanapereke mwatsatanetsatane momwe izi zidzakwaniritsidwire. Izi sizatsopano; ndi njira yokhazikika nthawi yonse ya utsogoleri wake. Komabe, nthawi ino, kulunjika kwa ma semiconductor akuyenera kupititsa patsogolo msika wapadziko lonse lapansi womwe ukusokonekera.
Zomwe zimapangidwira zimadziwika bwino. Trump adapitiliza njira yake ya "America Choyamba" kuyambira nthawi yake yachiwiri, nthawi zambiri amagwiritsa ntchito mitengo yamitengo ngati chida chamalonda. M'mbuyomu, nthawi zonse amaika mitengo yamitengo ku EU ndi China, ndipo adakankhiranso CHIPS Act kulimbikitsa makampani kuti amange mafakitale ku US. Nthawi ino, kulunjika kwa ma semiconductors kumamveka bwino kwa aliyense amene ali ndi diso lozindikira, pofuna kufulumizitsa kusintha kwa dziko lonse lapansi ku US, kuchepetsa kudalira maunyolo a Asia, ndikusunga malo akuluakulu a US pamakampani.
Mwalamulo, cholinga chotheka ndicho kusewera khadi la "chitetezo cha dziko", pogwiritsa ntchito Gawo 232 la Trade Expansion Act ya 1962. Zofufuza zofanana zakhala zikuchitika pa mankhwala monga semiconductors ndi mankhwala, ndipo zotsatira zikhoza kutulutsidwa mwamsanga sabata ino. Ngati kafukufuku apeza kuti ma semiconductors omwe amatumizidwa kunja amakhala pachiwopsezo chachitetezo, mitengo ya 25% mpaka 50% ikhoza kukhalapo.
Global Impact: Kusokonekera kwina kwa Global Semiconductor ndi Chip Supply Chain
Kuchokera pakuwona kwabwino, njira yapadziko lonse lapansi ya semiconductor idzasokonekera. United States pakadali pano imadalira kwambiri mphamvu zopanga za ku Asia. Ukadaulo wotsogola waku Taiwan umapanga 92% yazopanga padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo South Korea ndiye mtsogoleri wazokumbukira. Misonkho ikakhazikitsidwa, makampani ngati TSMC ndi Samsung atha kuthamangira kumanga mafakitale ku United States kuti apewe msonkho. TSMC yayika kale $ 165 biliyoni ku Arizona, ndipo South Korea yawonjezera ndalama zake zothandizira semiconductor mpaka 33 thililiyoni wopambana, pokonzekera.
Kuwonjezeka kwa mtengo kumakhalanso kosapeweka. Apple, mwachitsanzo, imadalira kwambiri TSMC pama foni ake am'manja ndi tchipisi ta makompyuta. Ngati mitengo ikwera ndi 15% mpaka 20%, mtengo wazinthu zomaliza mosakayikira udzakwera, ndipo ogula wamba adzayenera kulipira zambiri. Ngakhale ASML yanena kuti mitengo yamitengo imatha kusokoneza malonda. Ngakhale lipoti lake lachiwiri{6}} lazachuma la kotala lachiwiri linali labwino, lidakali ndi nkhawa.
EU: Kusamvana pazachuma ndi malonda kukukulirakulira, ndipo mikangano yazandale iyeneranso kuyimitsidwa. China yasintha malamulo ake oyambira ma semiconductor, tsopano akuwerengera malo opangira mawafa m'malo moyikamo, poyesa kuchepetsa kukhudzidwa kwamitengo. EU idagula kale $ 750 biliyoni mu mphamvu zaku US, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti pakhale mgwirizano wamitengo ya 15%, koma zida za semiconductor zitha kukumanabe ndi mitengo yosiyana, zomwe zimabweretsa mikangano yosapeŵeka.
Taiwan: Madera osiyanasiyana akukumana ndi nthawi zovuta. Kutumiza kwa semiconductor ku Taiwan kumapanga 20.8% yazogulitsa zake zonse. Misonkho ikakwera kuposa 25%, zotumiza kunja ku US zitha kukhala zopanda mpikisano, ndipo mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono amatha kutseka. A Directorate of Budget, Accounting and Statistics ku Taiwan-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics awerengetsera kuti mitengo ya 20% ingapangitse kukula kwachuma pachaka kuchoka pa 3.1% kufika pa 2.5%, kapenanso kukula koyipa.
South Korea: Ngakhale tchipisi tokumbukira ndikuchita mwamphamvu, zinthu zokhwima ngati tchipisi zamagalimoto zimatha kutaya mtengo wawo chifukwa chamitengo. Boma la South Korea likukonzekera kupereka ndalama zokwana 500 biliyoni zomwe zawinedwa kuti zithandizire mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono ndi apakati-zikuluzikulu, ndikuyembekeza kuthana ndi momwe zinthu zilili panopa popititsa patsogolo luso lazopangapanga.
China Mainland: Titha kufulumizitsa kusintha kwanyumba. Bungwe la Semiconductor Industry Association lafotokozanso kuti malo omwe adachokera amatsimikiziridwa ndi malo opangira nsalu. Makampani ambiri opanga mapangidwe akunja atha kusuntha zopangira zowomba kukhala opanga apanyumba monga SMIC ndi Huahong. Opanga ma analogi chip monga Shengbang Semiconductor ndi SiRuiPu atha kuwona kuchuluka kwa msika wawo.
United States: Kwa US palokha, ili ndi dalitso losakanikirana. Ngakhale pakhoza kukhala kanthawi kochepa-kubweza anthu kumayiko ena kwakanthawi kochepa, kupanga njira zopezera zinthu zonse kudzatenga zaka. A US pakadali pano akukumana ndi kusowa kwa zida za semiconductor, zida, ndi talente, ndipo sangathe kuzipeza mwachangu. Ngati zotumiza ku China ndizoletsedwa kumakampani monga Intel ndi Texas Instruments, gawo lawo la msika litha kuchotsedwa ndi makampani aku China. Kuphatikiza apo, ngati mitengo ikukwera, zamagetsi ndi magalimoto zikhala zokwera mtengo, zomwe zitha kuwonongera ogula aku America mabiliyoni ambiri pachaka, ndikuwonjezera kutsika kwamitengo.
Mayankho achigawo angakhale ochepa, ndipo chisokonezo mu gawo la semiconductor chatsala pang'ono kuyamba.
Mayiko sadzakhala chete. Dziko la Taiwan litha kugulitsa ndalama zambiri ku United States, mwina pokulitsa mphamvu zopangira za TSMC ndikugula zinthu zaulimi zaku America ndi mphamvu kuti zichepetse mitengo. Komabe, palinso nkhawa pachilumbachi kuti kudalira kwambiri US kungayambitse kutulutsa kwaukadaulo ndikuyika pachiwopsezo udindo wake ngati "chishango cha silicon."
Kuphatikiza pa ndalama zake, South Korea ikufunanso kugwirizana ndi EU ndi Japan kuti athetse vutoli. Mwachitsanzo, ikhoza kugwirizana ndi EU paukadaulo wapamwamba wamapaketi kuti achepetse kudalira kwake ku US.
Ku China, ma semiconductors ndi omwe amayang'ana kwambiri mu Mapulani a Zaka 14-Zazaka zisanu, ndipo kusintha kwa malamulo oyambira kukugwiritsidwa ntchito kukopa anthu oda kumayiko akunja. SMIC yalengeza kale mapulani okulitsa kupanga chip 28nm ku Shanghai, kutenga madongosolo omwe atha kuchotsedwa ku Taiwan.
Komabe, padakali zambiri zosatsimikizirika. Miyezo yeniyeni yamitengo, zinthu zomwe zikuyenera kuperekedwa, komanso kukhululukidwa kulikonse kudzayenera kudikirira kulengeza kwatsatanetsatane kwa Trump sabata yamawa. Ngati mtengo wamtengo wapatali uli wocheperapo kusiyana ndi kuyembekezera, mwinamwake 15% mpaka 20%, zotsatira za msika zikhoza kuchepetsedwa; Komabe, ngati ifika ku 50%, makampani a semiconductor padziko lonse adzakumana ndi kukonzanso kwakukulu.
Makampani amakhalanso ndi mapulani awoawo. TSMC ndi Samsung atha kuwonjezera khama lawo pomanga mafakitale ku US, pomwe mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono ndi ang'onoang'ono{1}}akhoza kusamutsira ku Southeast Asia kapena India. Makampani aku Taiwan onyamula ndi kuyesa ngati ASE ndi Powerchip akuganiza kale zokulitsa kupanga ku Vietnam.
Misonkho ya ku United States yosagwirizana ndi mayiko ena ikhoza kufooketsa njira za WTO, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti mgwirizano wamalonda wachigawo monga "Quad" pakati pa US, Japan, India, ndi Australia ukhale wotchuka kwambiri. Komabe, China ndi EU zitha kubwezeranso ndalama zobwezera, zomwe zitha kupangitsa kuti msika wapadziko lonse ukhale wogawikana.
Nthawi zambiri, kusuntha kwa Trump kumafuna kugwiritsa ntchito mitengo yamitengo kuti atembenuzire maunyolo ku US ndikuphatikiza ukulu wake waukadaulo. Komabe, pali zotsatirapo zazikulu: kuchuluka kwa ndalama, kusokoneza mayendedwe operekera zinthu, komanso kuchulukitsitsa kwachiwopsezo chazandale. Makampani ayenera kuyang'anitsitsa tsatanetsatane wa tarifi ndikukonzekera mosamala maunyolo awo. Padziko lonse, payenera kukhala mgwirizano pakati pa chitetezo cha mafakitale ndi malonda kuti apewe zotsatira zowononga. Zolengeza za Trump sabata yamawa zidzakhala zofunikira kwambiri pakuzindikira komwe msika wapadziko lonse wa semiconductor ukuyenda.